Contents	5
	List of Contributors	16
	List of Figures	20
	List of Tables	24
	Chapter 1: General Introduction: Weather, Climate, and Human History	25
	1.1 Climate History and Historical Climatology	26
	1.2 Methodological and Conceptual Challenges	27
	1.3 Background	30
	1.4 New Influences: Environmental History, Globalization, and Global Warming	34
	1.5 Prospects	35
	1.6 A Guide to this Handbook	37
	Bibliography	39
	Part I: Reconstruction	42
	Chapter 2: The Global Climate System	43
	References	48
	Chapter 3: Archives of Nature and Archives of Societies	49
	3.1 Introduction	49
	3.2 The Archives of Nature	50
	3.3 The Archives of Societies	52
	3.4 Reconstructing Past Climate from Proxies	52
	3.5 Conclusion: Combining the Archives of Nature and Society	57
	References	57
	Chapter 4: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Documentary Evidence—Overview	59
	4.1 Introduction	59
	4.2 Institutional Sources	60
	4.3 Personal Sources	61
	4.4 Dating	64
	References	67
	Chapter 5: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Personal Documentary Sources	70
	5.1 Introduction	70
	5.2 The Objectivity of Weather Narratives	71
	5.3 (Weather) Chronicles	72
	5.4 (Weather-Related) Pamphlets and Broadsides	72
	5.5 (Weather) Diaries	74
	5.6 (Personal) Plant-Phenological Observations	79
	5.7 (Personal) Ice-Phenological Data	80
	References	83
	Chapter 6: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Institutional Sources	87
	6.1 Introduction	87
	6.2 Agricultural Phenological Series	88
	6.3 Municipal Accounts	92
	6.4 Hydrological and Ice-Phenological Series	92
	6.5 Rogation Ceremonies	95
	6.6 Ships’ Logbooks	95
	6.7 Mandatory Reporting	96
	References	99
	Chapter 7: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Early Instrumental Observations	102
	7.1 Introduction	102
	7.2 Early Temperature Observations	103
	7.3 Early Pressure Observations	104
	7.4 Early Precipitation Observations	105
	7.5 Early Meteorological Networks	107
	7.6 Conclusion	108
	References	109
	Chapter 8: Evidence from the Archives of Societies: Historical Sources in Glaciology	112
	References	115
	Chapter 9: Analysis and Interpretation: Homogenization of Instrumental Data	117
	9.1 Why Do We Need to Homogenize Instrumental Data?	117
	9.2 The Practice of Homogenization	118
	9.3 An Example from the European Alpine Region	121
	9.4 Conclusion	123
	References	123
	Chapter 10: Analysis and Interpretation: Calibration-­Verification	124
	10.1 Introduction	124
	10.2 Establishing Documentary-Based Series	124
	10.3 The Practice of Calibration	126
	References	129
	Chapter 11: Analysis and Interpretation: Temperature and Precipitation Indices	131
	11.1 Introduction	131
	11.2 History of the Index Approach	132
	11.3 The Structure of Documentary-Based Temperature and Precipitation Indices	133
	11.4 Guidelines for Generating Indices	136
	11.5 Shortcomings and Uncertainties	138
	11.6 Evaluations and Results	139
	11.7 Applications	140
	References	144
	Chapter 12: Analysis and Interpretation: Spatial Climate Field Reconstructions	146
	12.1 Introduction	146
	12.2 Concepts	146
	12.3 Applications	147
	12.4 Uncertainties	150
	12.5 CFR Methods and Climate Models	150
	References	151
	Chapter 13: Analysis and Interpretation: Modeling of Past Climates	155
	13.1 Introduction	155
	13.2 How Models Work	155
	13.3 Examples and Regional Simulations	158
	13.4 Conclusion	161
	References	162
	Chapter 14: The Denial of Global Warming	163
	14.1 Introduction	163
	14.2 The USA (adapted from Merchants of Doubt)	164
	14.3 The George C. Marshall Institute	164
	14.4 Discrediting Ben Santer, Derailing Rio	166
	14.5 How Disinformation Took Hold	173
	14.6 The Debate in Europe	175
	14.7 The Debate in Australia	178
	14.8 Conclusion	179
	References	182
	Part II: Historical Climatology: Periods and Regions	186
	Chapter 15: The Holocene	187
	15.1 Introduction	187
	15.2 The Early Holocene	187
	15.3 Middle Holocene	190
	15.4 Late Holocene	190
	Bibliography	193
	Chapter 16: Mediterranean Antiquity	195
	16.1 Introduction	195
	16.2 Narrative	195
	16.3 Problems and Conclusion	197
	References	199
	Chapter 17: China: 2000 Years of Climate Reconstruction from Historical Documents	201
	17.1 Introduction	201
	17.2 Sources of Documentary Evidence	202
	17.3 Types of Documentary Evidence	205
	17.4 Temperature Reconstructions	206
	17.5 Precipitation Reconstructions	208
	17.6 Extreme Events	209
	17.7 Climate Change Impacts	211
	References	212
	Chapter 18: Climate History of Asia (Excluding China)	214
	18.1 Introduction	214
	18.2 Arabia and West Asia	215
	18.3 The Indian Subcontinent	216
	18.4 Japan and Korea	216
	18.5 Southeast Asia and Indonesia	218
	18.6 Siberia and Central Asia	219
	18.7 Conclusion	219
	References	220
	Chapter 19: Climate History in Latin America	223
	19.1 Pre-Colonial Records	223
	19.2 Colonial and Modern Records	224
	19.3 The Development of Climate History in Latin America	227
	19.4 Studies of Climate Forcings	228
	19.4.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation, Droughts, and Floods	228
	19.4.2 Caribbean Cyclones	228
	19.4.3 Ship Logs, Maritime Climate, and Southern Glaciers	228
	19.4.4 Hydroclimatic Variability in South America	229
	19.5 Conclusion	230
	References	231
	Chapter 20: A Multi-Century History of Drought and Wetter Conditions in Africa	235
	20.1 Introduction	235
	20.2 Multi-Century Drought Chronologies	236
	20.2.1 Equatorial Regions	236
	20.2.2 Sahelian West Africa	239
	20.2.3 Southern Africa	239
	20.2.4 Extratropical Margins	239
	20.3 The Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries	240
	20.4 Summary	241
	References	244
	Chapter 21: Recent Developments in Australian Climate History	247
	21.1 Introduction	247
	21.2 The South Eastern Australian Recent Climate History Project	249
	21.3 Australian Droughts, 1788–1899	251
	21.4 Australian Wet Periods, 1788–1899	251
	21.5 Conclusion	252
	References	253
	Chapter 22: European Middle Ages	256
	22.1 Introduction	256
	22.2 The State of the Field	257
	22.3 Evidence	259
	22.3.1 Narrative Sources	260
	22.3.2 Administrative Sources	261
	22.4 Methods	261
	22.4.1 Dating	261
	22.4.2 Indices	262
	22.4.3 Phenological Series	262
	22.5 Results	263
	22.5.1 Before the Medieval Warm Period, or 500–1000	263
	22.5.2 The Medieval Warm Period, or 1000–1300	263
	22.5.3 After the Medieval Warm Period, or 1300–1500	264
	22.6 Conclusion	264
	Bibliography	267
	Chapter 23: Early Modern Europe	273
	23.1 Introduction	273
	23.2 Geography	274
	23.3 History and Periodization	275
	23.4 Evidence	277
	23.5 Climatic Variations and Extremes	281
	23.5.1 European Temperature	281
	23.5.2 Northern Europe	283
	23.5.3 Western and Central Europe	284
	23.5.4 The Mediterranean and Eastern Europe	289
	23.6 Conclusion	291
	References	295
	Chapter 24: North American Climate History (1500–1800)	304
	24.1 Introduction	304
	24.2 Geography, Climate, and Context	304
	24.3 Sources	306
	24.4 Climatic Trends and Events	308
	24.5 Early Colonial Weather	309
	24.6 The Maunder Minimum	310
	24.7 Revolutionary Weather: The 1770s–90s	310
	24.8 Conclusion	311
	References	312
	Chapter 25: Climate from 1800 to 1970 in North America and Europe	316
	25.1 Introduction	316
	25.2 Data	316
	25.3 Climate Trends	319
	25.4 Climate Events	320
	25.4.1 The Tambora Eruption and the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816	320
	25.4.2 The 1830s Climate Cooling and Glacier Advances around 1850	320
	25.4.3 The Early Twentieth-Century Warming	322
	25.4.4 The “Dust Bowl” Droughts in North America in the 1930s	322
	25.4.5 Climatic Anomalies in 1940–2	323
	25.4.6 Retraction of the Northern Tropical Edge after 1945	324
	References	325
	Chapter 26: Global Warming (1970–Present)	328
	26.1 Climate Data	328
	26.2 Climate Trends	329
	26.3 Atmospheric Composition Change	332
	26.4 Climatic Events	332
	26.4.1 The Sahel Droughts of the 1970s and 1980s	332
	26.4.2 Change of European Winters around 1990	333
	26.4.3 The 1991 Pinatubo Eruption	333
	26.4.4 The El Niño Events of 1982–3 and 1997	334
	26.4.5 Subtropical Droughts and Mid-Latitude Heatwaves in the New Millennium	334
	References	335
	Part III: Climate and Society	336
	Chapter 27: Climate, Weather, Agriculture, and Food	337
	27.1 Introduction	337
	27.2 The Role of Climate and Weather in Food Production	338
	27.3 Climate Change and the Origins of Agriculture	340
	27.4 Climate, Food, and Crisis in the Ancient and Medieval World	341
	27.5 The Little Ice Age (LIA)	344
	27.6 Beyond the Little Ice Age	350
	27.7 Conclusion: Patterns and Lessons	352
	References	354
	Chapter 28: Climate, Ecology, and Infectious Human Disease	360
	28.1 Introduction	360
	28.2 Climate Forces and the Ecological Parameters of Disease History	361
	28.3 New Pathogens and Centers of Transmission	362
	28.4 Processes of Epidemiological Integration	364
	28.5 Biomedicine, Emerging Diseases, and Climate Change	366
	28.6 Conclusion	367
	References	368
	Chapter 29: Climate Change and Conflict	371
	29.1 Introduction	371
	29.2 Climate Change and the Origins of War: Qualitative Approaches	372
	29.3 Climate Change and the Origins of War: Quantitative Approaches	376
	29.4 Climate Change and the Conduct of War	381
	29.5 War and the Causes of Climate Change	383
	29.6 Conclusion	384
	References	386
	Chapter 30: Narrating Indigenous Histories of Climate Change in the Americas and Pacific	390
	30.1 Introduction	390
	30.2 Scope	391
	30.3 The Arctic and Subarctic	392
	30.4 Temperate North America	393
	30.5 Mexico	398
	30.6 South America	400
	30.7 Pacific Islands	402
	30.8 Indigenous Knowledge and Contemporary Research	404
	30.9 Conclusion	405
	References	408
	Chapter 31: Migration and Climate in World History	415
	31.1 Introduction	415
	31.2 Climatic Changes and the Peopling of the Earth	416
	31.3 Climate and Migration in Early Agrarian Societies	420
	31.4 Little Ice Age (LIA) Climate Change and European Emigration to the Americas	423
	31.5 Acclimatization, Forced (Labor) Migration, and Resettlement	428
	31.6 Global Warming, Displacement, and Climate Refugees	431
	31.7 Conclusions	435
	References	440
	Part IV: Case Studies in Climate Reconstruction and Impacts	447
	Chapter 32: The Climate Downturn of 536–50	448
	32.1 Introduction	448
	32.2 Texts	450
	32.3 Tree Rings	453
	32.4 Other Proxies	460
	32.5 Ice Cores	463
	32.6 Origins	464
	32.7 Collapse and Resilience	468
	32.8 Conclusion	475
	References	484
	Chapter 33: The 1310s Event	495
	33.1 Introduction	495
	33.2 The Wider Climatic Context: Transition from the MCA to the LIA	495
	33.3 The Weather Anomaly of 1314–16	497
	33.4 Agricultural Production Destroyed	498
	33.5 From Shortage to Famine	501
	33.6 Malnourishment and Mortality: Humans	503
	33.7 Malnourishment and Mortality: Animals	504
	33.8 Long-Term Impacts	507
	33.9 Conclusion	508
	References	511
	Chapter 34: The 1780s: Global Climate Anomalies, Floods, Droughts, and Famines	516
	34.1 Introduction	516
	34.2 Reconstructing Global Climate in the 1780s	517
	34.3 The Laki Fissure Eruption of 1783	519
	34.4 Protracted Episodes: El Niño 1782–84 and La Niña 1785–90	520
	34.5 Case Study 1: Famines in India, 1780–1812	522
	34.6 Case Study 2: The Influence of Climate on the First European Settlement of Australia, 1788–93	530
	34.7 Case Study 3: Regional Events and Impacts during the 1780s in Japan	533
	34.8 Case Study 4: Africa (Including Egypt)	535
	34.9 Conclusions	539
	References	544
	Chapter 35: A Year Without a Summer, 1816	550
	References	558
	Part V: The History of Climate Ideas and Climate Science	561
	Chapter 36: Climate as a Scientific Paradigm—Early History of Climatology to 1800	562
	36.1 Introduction	562
	36.2 The Geographic Tradition of Climates	563
	36.3 Mapping Climates	567
	36.4 Paradigm Shift	570
	36.5 Climate Change and History	575
	36.6 Conclusions	578
	References	581
	Chapter 37: Climate and Empire in the Nineteenth Century	586
	37.1 Recording the Colonial Climate	587
	37.2 Pathologising the Colonial Climate	588
	37.3 Changing Colonial Climates	590
	37.4 The Archive of Colonial Climates	591
	37.5 Climates of Disaster	593
	37.6 Conclusion	594
	References	596
	Chapter 38: From Climatology to Climate Science in the Twentieth Century	601
	38.1 Introduction	601
	38.2 “Classical Climatology” and its Expansion	602
	38.3 The “Conquest of the Third Dimension”	603
	38.4 Investigation of Climatic Changes	605
	38.5 Making Climatology a Physical Science: The Physical Understanding of the Atmosphere	606
	38.6 The Rise of Atmospheric and Climate Modeling	608
	38.7 Data Networks and Satellites: The Observational Revolution	611
	38.8 Earth System Analysis	613
	38.9 Ice Core Research and Paleoclimatology	615
	38.10 Conclusion	616
	References	622
	Epilogue	629
	Glossary	636
	Index	640