Contents	6
	Chapter-1	9
	Introduction	9
	References	14
	Chapter-2	15
	Demographic Change as a Challenge	15
	2.1 Current Demographic Structure in Germany and Poland	17
	2.2 Determinants of Lower Fertility Rates	19
	2.3 Determinants of Mortality Decline	23
	2.4 Determinants of Migration Patterns	24
	2.4.1 Structural Components	25
	2.4.2 Patterns of Migration in the Individual Life Course	26
	2.4.3 Networks	27
	2.4.4 Border Regimes	28
	2.4.5 Hybrid Forms	29
	References	30
	Chapter-3	33
	How Do Societies Cope with Complex Demographic Challenges? A Model	33
	3.1 A Short Review	34
	3.2 Demographic Ways of Coping with Demographic Change	38
	3.3 Non-demographic Ways of Coping with Demographic Change	40
	3.3.1 Problem Framing	40
	3.3.2 Coping	44
	3.3.3 Institution	49
	3.3.3.1 Do Public Labour Markets Lack Flexibility?	52
	3.3.3.2 Peculiarities of Public Sector Labour Markets: Professions and Civil Servants	53
	3.3.3.3 Demographic Change and the Division of Labour	55
	3.3.4 Mentalities	56
	3.4 Short Summary	59
	References	61
	Chapter-4	66
	Data Sets and Methods Used	66
	4.1 Methodologies for Studying Coping with Demographic Change	66
	4.2 The Data Sets Created and Used	67
	4.3 Approach to Data Analysis	71
	Electronic Supplementary Material	71
	References	72
	Chapter-5	73
	Why do Municipalities ‘Think’ in Demographic Terms? Governing by Population Numbers in Germany and Poland	73
	5.1 Introduction	73
	5.2 Is Demographic Change Relevant to Public Sector Organisations?	75
	5.3 In-kind Calculation of Municipal Services Based on Population Numbers	79
	5.3.1 Municipal Tasks and Territorial Reforms	80
	5.3.2 In-kind Calculation of Human Resources	84
	5.3.3 Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations	87
	5.4 Demographic Responsiveness of Local Government Revenues in Germany and Poland	90
	5.4.1 Empirical Strategy: Panel Analysis	91
	5.4.2 Data Sources and Coverage	91
	5.4.3 Operationalisation of Variables	92
	5.4.4 Empirical Results	93
	5.5 Conclusion	96
	Electronic Supplementary Material	97
	References	97
	Chapter-6	101
	Coping with Demographic Decline in German and Polish Municipalities	101
	6.1 Introduction	101
	6.2 Comparing Municipal Framing and Coping Strategies	103
	6.3 Growth Frames and the Expansion of Public Services	104
	6.3.1 Maintaining “Skilled Employment”	105
	6.3.2 Fertility Decline as an Opportunity for Task Expansion	107
	6.3.3 Professionalising the Local Public Administration Workforce	108
	6.4 Demographisation Frames and Reduction Strategies	110
	6.4.1 An “Incredible Loss of Residents”	111
	6.4.2 Legitimate and Illegitimate Instruments of Staff Reduction	112
	6.4.3 Reduction of Collective Working Hours: A Third Way?	115
	6.5 Realistic Frames	116
	6.6 Denial Frames	118
	6.7 Reorganisation of Public Services Through Privatisation	122
	6.8 Second-Order Problems of Personnel Downsizing in Internal Labour Markets	125
	6.8.1 Rapidly Ageing Workforces	125
	6.8.2 Mismatches of Demands and Available Staff	127
	6.8.3 Skills Shortage as a Strategic Challenge	129
	6.9 Conclusion	130
	References	132
	Chapter-7	137
	Expansive Reaction to Demographic Change: The Case of the Polish Educational Sector	137
	7.1 Inevitable Consequences of Demographic Change?	138
	7.2 Forms of Expansion of the Polish Educational Sector at the Central and Local Government Level	141
	7.2.1 Expansion Policies at the National Level	141
	7.2.2 Expansion Policy at the Local Level	144
	7.3 Consequences of Expansion Strategies	150
	7.3.1 School Quality	150
	7.3.2 Fiscal Stability	153
	7.3.3 Teacher Labour Market	155
	7.4 Concluding Remarks	159
	References	162
	Chapter-8	167
	The Demographic Responsiveness of Education Demand and Supply at Different Levels of the Education System	167
	8.1 Introduction	167
	8.2 The Demographic Responsiveness of the Education System	169
	8.3 Demographic Responsiveness of the Education System in Saxony-Anhalt	171
	8.3.1 Early Childhood Education and Care	172
	8.3.2 Primary and Secondary General Schools	174
	8.3.3 Vocational Schools	179
	8.3.4 Higher Education	182
	8.3.5 Comparison Across the Levels of the Education System	185
	8.4 Equal Access to Education and Economisation of Infrastructure	189
	Electronic Supplementary Material	192
	References	192
	Chapter-9	197
	Personnel Strategies of Public Sector Organisations in Response to a Declining Service Population. A Model and Empirical Evidence	197
	9.1 Introduction	197
	9.2 Theoretical Considerations	200
	9.3 Personnel Policy in Polish Public Schools Facing Falling Enrolment	205
	9.3.1 Personnel Policy Measures	205
	9.3.1.1 Layoffs	205
	9.3.1.2 Retirement	206
	9.3.1.3 Multi-Subject Teachers	207
	9.3.1.4 Fixed-Term Contracts	209
	9.3.1.5 Overtime	210
	9.3.1.6 Teacher Mobility Between Municipal Schools	212
	9.3.2 Personnel Management Strategies	213
	9.3.2.1 Retirement as a Strategic Response to the External Flexibility Problem	213
	9.3.2.2 Multi-Subject Teachers and Municipal Internal Labour Markets as a Strategic Response to the Internal Flexibility Problem	215
	9.3.2.3 Fixed-Term Contracts as a Strategic Response to the Problem of Uncertainty	219
	9.4 Discussion	222
	References	224
	Chapter-10	228
	Demographic Challenges and Mentalities: Modes of Reflexivity and Personnel Policy in German and Polish Municipalities	228
	10.1 Introduction	228
	10.2 Conceptual Considerations	229
	10.3 Applied Methodology	235
	10.3.1 Data Collection Design	235
	10.3.2 Operationalisation	235
	10.4 Empirical Results in a German-Polish Comparison	238
	10.4.1 Descriptive Analyses of the Individual Items	238
	10.4.2 Construction of indices and first-time application of the LACONI	241
	10.4.3 How Reliable is the LACONI?	245
	10.4.4 Statistical Associations Between Demography and the Modes of Collective Reflexivity	247
	10.5 Conclusion	250
	Electronic Supplementary Material	252
	References	252
	Chapter-11	255
	The Consequences of Coping with Demographic Change for Fiscal Capacity of and Unemployment in German Municipalities	255
	11.1 Introduction: Does Local Population Policy Matter?	255
	11.2 Theoretical Concept: The Model of Frame Selection (MFS)	258
	11.2.1 Frame Selection and the Definition of the Situation	258
	11.2.2 Script Selection	260
	11.2.3 Selection of Action	263
	11.3 Methodology	266
	11.3.1 Study Design	266
	11.3.2 Explanandum	268
	11.3.3 Hypotheses Formulation and Testing Methods	269
	11.3.4 Explanatory Models and Operationalisation	271
	11.4 Empirical Results	273
	11.4.1 Local Fiscal Capacity	273
	11.4.2 Local Labour Market	276
	11.5 Conclusion	279
	References	280